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Libertarian Party of California Voter Registration: Difference between revisions
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Libertarian Party of California Voter Registration (view source)
Revision as of 17:05, 2 October 2020
, 2 October 2020update to use latest graph of registration, add section on comparison with other parties
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(update to use latest graph of registration, add section on comparison with other parties) |
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==History== | ==History== | ||
[[File:LPC-hist-regvot- | [[File:LPC-hist-regvot-202010.gif]] | ||
Voter registration counts vary over time not only because of changing levels of actual support, but also for technical reasons. Many people register to vote in the time shortly before a major election, often resulting in temporary spikes in counts. Removal of names from the voter rolls in an effort to weed out people who are no longer actually eligible to vote in a given area, either on an ongoing basis or in the form of occasional "purges", can cause declines in the counts that don't reflect any real decline in support. Also increases in the number of registered voters take place in the context of a generally increasing population. This graph shows both the absolute number of voters registered Libertarian (scale on the left) and the fraction of all registered voters who were registered as Libertarians (scale on the right). | Voter registration counts vary over time not only because of changing levels of actual support, but also for technical reasons. Many people register to vote in the time shortly before a major election, often resulting in temporary spikes in counts. Removal of names from the voter rolls in an effort to weed out people who are no longer actually eligible to vote in a given area, either on an ongoing basis or in the form of occasional "purges", can cause declines in the counts that don't reflect any real decline in support. Also increases in the number of registered voters take place in the context of a generally increasing population. This graph shows both the absolute number of voters registered Libertarian (scale on the left) and the fraction of all registered voters who were registered as Libertarians (scale on the right). | ||
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Both because of continued growth in the number of registered Libertarians and because of a change in the law which reduced the number required, the LPC's retention of qualified party status by this measure is no longer an issue. As of 2020, the Libertarian voter count is more than twice the required number. | Both because of continued growth in the number of registered Libertarians and because of a change in the law which reduced the number required, the LPC's retention of qualified party status by this measure is no longer an issue. As of 2020, the Libertarian voter count is more than twice the required number. | ||
After a moderate decline in the early 2000s, statewide Libertarian registration then began rising again both in absolute numbers and as a fraction of all registered voters. This increase has been fairly steady starting in 2008, but included significant jumps associated with the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections. From the mid-2008 low to | After a moderate decline in the early 2000s, statewide Libertarian registration then began rising again both in absolute numbers and as a fraction of all registered voters. This increase has been fairly steady starting in 2008, but included significant jumps associated with the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections. From the mid-2008 low to September 2020 (the most recent report available), the absolute count has more than doubled, and the Libertarian fraction of all registered voters is now slightly higher than the level at the end of the initial registration drive. | ||
Since this recent period has not included any large-scale attempts to boost Libertarian registration for its own sake, it seems reasonable to attribute this increase over the past decade to other factors, such as: (1) increasing awareness and/or sympathy for the Libertarian brand, (2) dissatisfaction with the more established parties, and (3) a continuing replacement in the voter rolls of records representing people who were simply maintaining a past affiliation by default, with records representing people who have more recently had reason to make a choice, whether that be because they were newly eligible to vote or because they re-registered as a result of a move. | Since this recent period has not included any large-scale attempts to boost Libertarian registration for its own sake, it seems reasonable to attribute this increase over the past decade to other factors, such as: (1) increasing awareness and/or sympathy for the Libertarian brand, (2) dissatisfaction with the more established parties, and (3) a continuing replacement in the voter rolls of records representing people who were simply maintaining a past affiliation by default, with records representing people who have more recently had reason to make a choice, whether that be because they were newly eligible to vote or because they re-registered as a result of a move. | ||
==Comparison With Other Parties== | |||
There are currently six qualified parties in California. The Democratic Party has the largest number of registered voters by a significant margin, followed by the Republicans. In third place is the American Independent Party. The LP is in fourth place, followed by the Peace and Freedom Party and then the Greens. | |||
[[File:CA_regbypartyhistory_2020-10-02.gif]] | |||
Notes on the graph: | |||
* The vertical axis is ''logarithmic''. | |||
* All figures are from reports of registration published by the Secretary of State. | |||
* This graph shows counts for the parties that are currently qualified. There were two other parties qualified during part of this time period (Reform, Natural Law) and California allows voters to write in the name of an unqualified party; these voters are not included in the counts shown. | |||
Significant trends over the past two decades: | |||
* The Republicans have gone from roughly comparable with the Democrats to a very clear second place. (This corresponds to the parties' relative success in state government, where the Democrats currently hold all the statewide offices as well as a super-majority in both houses of the legislature.) | |||
* The number of independent voters (official term "no party preference", formerly "decline to state") has risen, to about the same as the number of Republicans. | |||
* The Greens, after showing significant growth in the early 2000s, have been on a steady decline since then and are now in last place. | |||
* The other smaller parties have all shown continuous growth over the past several years. | |||
[[Category: Voter Registration Statistics]] | [[Category: Voter Registration Statistics]] | ||